魏剑峰的经济学人笔记 下载本文

or social media to complain—and their gripes may turn other, more profitable customers against the firm.

293. Mr Goldman’s book is best remembered for coining the rule that in his industry, ―nobody knows anything‖: it is anyone’s guess whether a film will be a hit or a miss.

294. Steven Spielberg, no introduction necessary, reckons that the studios could face ―meltdown‖ if several big films flop at once.

295. A new species of intermediaries, such as Village Roadshow Entertainment Group and Skydance, have sprung up to bankroll projects.

296. But even after a film’s release it remains unclear why it boomed or bombed. Why was ―Gravity‖, starring George Clooney and Sandra Bullock in a tale about stranded astronauts, one of this year’s hits despite the misgivings of its studio, Warner Bros, whereas ―The Lone Ranger‖ was such a flop, despite Disney’s high hopes for a film starring Johnny Depp?

297. Faced with bankruptcy 50 years ago, Fox might have been better off keeping the property and junking the film-making.

298. The media conglomerates that own the major studios grouse about the lousy economics of the business, particularly since DVD sales peaked in 2004 and then waned, with consumers shifting to lower-cost rentals and subscription services like Netflix.

299. Technology should have helped Hollywood, by lowering the cost of distributing films, but it has also cost the industry dearly, as film-makers doll up their movies with expensive special effects, and negative social-media buzz kills films before they even open.

300. Thirty years ago Hollywood tried to make films that appealed to ―popcorn buyers‖: 16- to 24-year-olds who used to go to cinemas in droves before they became so preoccupied by their smartphones.

301. ―Football belongs to everyone,‖ it says, in a schmaltzy advertisement ahead of the World Cup.

302. Although his businesses are exceptionally profitable by global standards, the services are slow and expensive, and their uptake low, even by Latin American standards (see charts).

303. Ernesto Estrada, an Ifetel commissioner, says there are two prongs to the inquiry: has the concession been violated? And should the relationship preclude Dish from

airing Televisa and Azteca’s content without paying?

304. However, the risk is that the incumbents may scrimp on upgrading their networks, out of a reluctance to help their competitors. Luca

305. this is a particular worry in Mexico, where internet usage is low.

306. He now wants foreigners to plough another $1.5 billion or so into JD (previously known as 360buy) at its forthcoming initial public offering in New York.

307. JD now has 82 warehouses across China, and over 18,000 delivery staff.

308. Two big questions hang over the firm’s future.

309. The firm, which controls perhaps 80% of all e-commerce in China, is expanding into ancillary areas to fortify its position.

310. It has invested in social-messaging outfits, launched online wealth-management services and bought into a popular taxi-hailing app.

311. WHEN Australia’s first locally made car, a Holden FX, rolled off the production line in 1948 it was greeted with an excitement that befitted a symbol of a youthful nation taking its place among advanced economies.

312. Toyota’s announcement on February 10th that it would join Ford and Holden in pulling out of carmaking in Australia, closing its assembly line in 2017, was greeted with commensurate dismay.

313. Australian plants lack economies of scale but not employees with bulging wage packets.

314. But carmaking is a small and unprofitable part of a shrinking manufacturing sector, employing relatively few, in an economy dominated by services and resources. The main damage caused by the carmakers’ departure is to Australians’ self-esteem.

315. It boasted wonderfully fertile agricultural land, a sunny climate, a new democracy (universal male suffrage was introduced in 1912), an educated population and the world’s most erotic dance.

316. Why dwell on a single national tragedy?

317. turn to North Korea as a model; the governments in Madrid or Athens are not citing Lenin as the answer to their euro travails.

318. The real danger is inadvertently becoming the Argentina of the 21st century.

319. weak institutions, nativist politicians, lazy dependence on a few assets and a persistent refusal to confront reality will do the trick.

320. Building institutions is a dull, slow business.

321. Argentine leaders prefer the quick fix—of charismatic leaders, miracle tariffs and currency pegs, rather than, say, a thorough reform of the country’s schools.

322. Argentina’s decline has been seductively gradual.

323. Italy’s petulant demand that rating agencies should take into account its ―cultural wealth‖, instead of looking too closely at its dodgy government finances, sounded like Ms Fernández.

324. The European Union protects Spain or Greece from spiralling off into autarky. But what if the euro zone broke up?

325. The bigger danger, however, lies in the emerging world, where uninterrupted progress to prosperity is beginning to be seen as unstoppable.

326. Some languages have no word for cancer.

327. Bringing true competition to these businesses would do wonders for Mexico’s economy, which in some industries resembles the United States before the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890.

328. Both América Móvil and Televisa have dodged past attempts to rein them in, partly by exerting excessive influence over regulators and partly because competition law was full of holes that allowed them to use the courts to tie the authorities in knots.

329. By the same token, if Televisa had greater access to Mr Slim’s wires it would be able to challenge América Móvil by offering its pay-TV subscribers ―bundles‖ that included telephone and broadband services.

330. Britain’s experience provides a salutary example.

331. In 2006 it forced BT, the former state telecoms monopoly, to create an arms-length subsidiary to run its network infrastructure and sell access to new entrants at fair prices. Consumers

332. Orchestrating a similar battle of the titans in Mexico, while clearing a path for other contenders, is the best way to bring about the competitive revolution the

country’s communications industries need.

333. This will stop insurers cancelling individuals’ health plans just before the mid-term elections, which would have been bad news for the Democrats.

334. They were said to have been heading for Port Sudan and then to the Gaza Strip, which abuts Israel.

335. Gunmen suspected of belonging to Nigeria’s Boko Haram Islamist terrorist group rampaged through villages in the north-east of the country, killing scores of people over several days.

336. opposition protesters continued with their rolling demonstrations.

337. He is heavily trailing the left’s Luis Guillermo Solís in a run-off vote on April 6th.

338. Gunmen burst into the building and opened fire before suicide-bombers detonated explosives.

339. Some in the West will argue that the starting point for policy is to recognise reality, however unpalatable.

340. That thinking is mistaken. In the past week Mr Putin has trampled over norms that buttress the international order and he has established dangerous precedents that go far beyond Ukraine (see article).

341. The Ukrainian citizens who protested in Maidan did not drive out a home-grown autocrat only to become beholden to the one next door;

342. many of the youths on the streets of Donetsk and Kharkiv, in the Russian-speaking east, are as eager to belong to a sovereign Ukraine as are their compatriots in Kiev and Lviv.

343. If the West implicitly accepts this line, Mr Putin will have a pretext for intervening to protect Russians scattered across the former Soviet Union, from Central Asia to the Baltic.

344. Such preposterous claims are not meant to be taken at face value.

345. Unchallenged, this is a licence for Russian aggression.

346. Mr Putin expects a slap on the wrist. Sanctions must exceed his expectations.