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1.Market Structure and Innovation (20·Ö)

Which market conditions are optimal for effective and sustained innovation to occur? This is a question that has vexed economists and business academies for many years. High levels of research and development spending are frequently observed in oligopolistic markets, although this does not always translate itself into a fast pace of innovation.

The recent work of William Baumol(2002) provides support for oligopoly as market structure best suited for innovative behavior. Innovation is perceived as being ¨Dmandatory¡¬ for business that need to establish a cost-advantage or a significant lead in product quality over their rivals.

¨DAs soon as quality competition and sales effort are admitted into the sacred precincts of theory, the price variable is ousted from its dominant position¡­¡­But in capitalist reality as distinguished from its textbook picture , it is not that kind of competition which counts but the competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives. This kind of competition is as much more effective than the other as a bombardment is in comparison with forcing a door.¡¬

Supernormal profits persist in the long-run in an oligopoly and these can be used to finance research and development.

2. The other exit strategy (20·Ö)

Independent budget offices would help politicians¡¯ promises to be prudent tomorrow. Economic policymakers across the rich world face two delicate balancing acts over the new years. The first, involving monetary policy is being widely discussed and carefully planned by teams of technocrats. Central bankers must keep their balance-sheets big and interest rates low for long enough to prevent deflation setting in, but they also have to be prepared to change things quickly to prevent inflation taking off. The second balancing act, involving fiscal policy, depends on politicians rather than specialists¡ªand has, so far, been shamefully ill-planned.

In the short term public largesse is a necessary response to the slump in private demand. Budget deficits have ballooned ¨C to and average of almost 10% of GDP across the big, rich countries ¨C for good reasons, as governments have bolstered their banks and provided fiscal stimulus, and as sagging economies have sapped tax revenues. Withdrawing that

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support too fast would be foolish. Particularly after a banking bust, premature fiscal tightening can push weak economies back into decline , as Japan¡¯s ill-timed consumption-tax increase in 1997 showed. The same risk holds today, particularly if the fiscal squeeze involves incentive-dulling tax increases. But public profligacy cannot last for ever . Even if the nascent recovery takes hold , the IMF reckons the gross government debt of the rich world¡¯s big economies will reach an average of 115% of GDP by 2014 and continue to rise thereafter in some places, notably America. The weight of this debt will eventually push up interest rates, crowd out private investment and sap economic growth. Far nastier outcomes, from out-of-control inflation to outright default, are conceivable.

3. Arbitration (10·Ö)

All disputes in connection with this contract or the execution thereof shall be settled by negotiation between two parties. If no settlement can be reached, the case in dispute shall then be submitted for arbitration in the country of defendant in accordance with the arbitration regulations of the arbitration organization of the defendant country. The decision made by the arbitration organization shall be taken as final and binding upon both parties. The arbitration expenses shall be borne by the losing party unless otherwise awarded by the arbitration organization.

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