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Figure 11. SIR Model Curves in different ELs.

6.5 Strengths and Weaknesses

This work adopts the classic SIR model to EL control, and proves that control of EL is useful. EL is mentioned exhaustively in this paper. We believe this can make relevant departments to work efficiently.

To lead governments and other departments to control Ebola, This paper describe an optimized SIR model that shows the relationship between El and the development of spread of disease. However, the real world is complex than the ideal model. For Figure 12, we simulate the new SIR model with isolation in the real world. We will introduce the concept of isolation people and build an ODE model closer to reality in future work.

γIMKSSβSIIδI QεR R Figure 12. The SIR model with isolation.

7 Strengths and Weaknesses

7.1 Strengths

● Model one: Many relevant variables are simplified with a comprehensive evaluation index,

which can be applied to many optimization occasions, such as the distribution system optimization, optimizing assignment of resources and decision-making aid, Ebola epidemic control strategy.

● Model two: Algorithm can transport goods in the shortest possible time, the most equitable solution to allocate limited resources. In addition, global epidemic rescue resources can be allocated by it.

● Model three: Simple and efficient, we can obtain more satisfactory predictive value in the case of less demanding accuracy for the relevant medical resource decisions.

● Model four: With the help of EL, comprehensive consideration under a large number of indicators has a high practical significance, with strong robustness.

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7.2 Weaknesses

● Model one: The amount of data needed to model a large and epidemic index is a relative

term, consider a country's epidemic indicators alone does not make sense.

● Model two: Each country need put aside political forces and work together to resist Ebola. In addition, we need extract a part of the money from resources limited. Of course, if we only consider the fastest speed delivery of supplies, then the cost is the second.

● Model three: Situation report has some errors. Arguments what model considers has only Deaths and Cases, there are some errors. Certainly, if official provide more data on the Internet, the result will be more accurate.

● Model four: Because population health data cannot be real-time statistics in practice, the data has been outdate. Well, when a country is great, and has a large population, highly mobile population, determining the health size will be a troublesome problem. Fortunately, they are applicable in Africa.

7.3 Future Work

● Firstly, we also need time to prove the correctness of our model, though they look pretty

good.

● Certainly, although the proposal putting forward by our team can improve or optimize some cases, but still cannot eradicate the problem of Ebola. Only Ebola virus vaccine can cure Ebola completely. Therefore, we will not fight with Ebola until the effective cure Ebola vaccine in patients appear.

8 Conclusion

● After seeing numerous reports on African Ebola outbreak, we are very impressed with African fellow eyes. Therefore, we want to try our best to do something for them. “The closer you get to zero, the harder the job.” That’s according to Dr.David Nabarro, who heads the U.N.’s effort against Ebola.

● Thus, we established evaluation system, logistics system, assigned strategy, and control strategy. We hope that we can use all the power we have to assist Africa friends. In the future, there will be series of virus, and scientists can not immediately come up with the vaccine. However, our model can help us reduce the number of losses. That’s what we want to say.

9 To Get To Zero Ebola Cases

To: The World Medical Association From: Team # 38411 Date: February 9, 2015

Subject: To Get To Zero Ebola Cases

To whom it may concern,

I am grateful that you can see our letter. The Ebola epidemic has killed some 8,371 out of an

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estimated 21,171 known cases of people infected in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea alone, according to the available figures from the World Health Organization. We have to believe that Ebola disaster is nothing less than a war.

Harsh environment, the lack of material conditions and poor health conditions in West Africa are the main reasons for the outbreak. Since March 2014, various world organizations, countries, organizations or individuals who care much about the West African support many materials and manpower.

Improvements are occurring at varying rates in different countries. The number of new cases in Liberia have dropped from more than 30 per day to the single-digits, and Sierra Leone is also beginning to turn the corner, though cases remain widespread. Therefore, we need to have confidence in the rescue.

According epidemic status quo of improvement, we will take a series of measures to reduce stress and to get to zero Ebola.

Now, we want to write something to African friends. ● Define Epidemic Level (EL).

We are ready to adopt new evaluation mechanisms epidemic—EL. It is a more comprehensive and more equitable index. The vaccine we developed will be distributed to the affected areas through EL value.

● Efficient logistics system, better medical center and shortest logistics distance included.

We create efficient logistics system, so our vaccine will arrive in your hands faster. What’s more, more medical center which is not far away from you will be built. How long can you receive the latest vaccine do? Maybe less than 45 minutes. ● Accurate demand forecasting.

The system will tell us how much resources you need. The resources need prepare in advance, so we are ready for you by forecasting. ● More equitable allocation strategy.

Considering more indicators, we have more equitable allocation strategy to ensure equitable use of resources.

● More practical epidemic control strategies.

In addition to the vaccine, we have more scientific control strategy. Spread of Ebola need be prevented in a fastest way.

Above strategies influence each other, we think about the spread of the disease, the quantity of the medicine needed, possible feasible delivery systems, locations of delivery and so on. To get to zero Ebola cases is our goal.

If the above advice we give can get your approval, will be our greatest pleasure. Sincerely

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outbreak in West Africa[J]. arXiv preprint arXiv:1408. 3505, 2014.

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estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model[J]. PLoS currents, 2014, 6.

[3] Saaty T L. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process[J]. International journal of

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[4] Lewis M A, Renc?awowicz J. Pvan den Driessche, Marjorie Wonham. Discrete and ultra

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[5] Towers S, Patterson-Lomba O, Castillo-Chavez C. Temporal variations in the effective

reproduction number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak[J]. PLoS currents, 2014, 6.

[6] Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A. Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak:

estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model[J]. PLoS currents, 2014, 6.

[7] Nishiura H, Chowell G. Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West

Africa, March to August 2014[J]. Euro Surveill, 2014, 19(36): 20894.

[8] Hamilton J D. Time series analysis[M]. Princeton: Princeton university press, 1994. [9] Chitra Subramaniam, October 15, 2014, http://www.thenewsminute. com/worlds/613.

[10] Van Laarhoven P J M, Aarts E H L. Simulated annealing[M]. Springer Netherlands, 1987. [11] Team W H O E R. Ebola virus disease in West Africa—the first 9 months of the epidemic and

forward projections[J]. N Engl J Med, 2014, 371(16): 1481-95.